NBIS (Nebius Group) Deep Dive: Earnings, Valuation & Delivery Capacity
Nebius Group (NBIS) has transitioned from a high-growth story to a massive AI infrastructure execution machine. Rating: HIGH RISK (Speculative Hold/Buy)
Analysis Date: February 15, 2026
Ticker: NBIS (NASDAQ)
Rating: 🔴 HIGH RISK (Speculative Hold/Buy)
1. Executive Summary
Nebius Group (NBIS) has transitioned from a high-growth "story" to a massive AI infrastructure execution machine. Following the Feb 12, 2026 earnings, the company confirmed its hypergrowth trajectory (+547% revenue) and provided aggressive 2026 guidance. While the valuation is extreme (P/S ~44x trailing), the forward multiple (P/S ~7.7x) suggests significant value if delivery targets are met.
2. Earnings Review (Q4 & FY 2025)
- Revenue: $561M (+547% YoY).
- Profitability: Core AI Cloud Adjusted EBITDA turned positive in Q4 2025—a critical milestone for operational leverage.
- Spending: High Capex led to a wider EPS miss ($-0.99), reflecting aggressive investment in data centers and GPUs.
3. Valuation & Implied Growth
The market price of ~$98 implies a 112.5% CAGR in revenue for 2026.
- Management Guidance: $3.0B - $3.4B (Implies ~460%+ growth).
- Assessment: The market's "implied target" is actually conservative relative to management's own guidance, providing a psychological floor if delivery remains on track.
- Forward P/S: Drops to ~7.7x based on 2026 mid-point guidance, which is reasonable for a 400%+ growth AI infra play.
4. Delivery Capacity: The 1GW Power Goal
The 1GW connected power goal by end of 2026 is the primary driver of the stock.
| Metric | Status / Update |
|---|---|
| Contracted Power | Upgraded to 3GW+ (from 2.5GW) |
| Connected Goal | 800MW - 1GW by end 2026 |
| GPU Inventory | Elite Partner status; Blackwell B200 deployment starts 2026 |
| Key Projects | France (240MW) first phase online Summer 2026; Wisconsin (2GW) final phases |
5. Investment Thesis & Risks
The Bull Case
- NBIS successfully converts its 3GW contracted power into revenue.
- EBITDA margins expand to 35-40% as AI Cloud scales.
- Becomes the primary independent alternative to Big Tech hyperscalers.
The Bear Case (Risks)
- Construction Delay: Grid connection or data center build-out hits a 6-month delay.
- Capex Burn: Capital markets tighten before the company reaches full FCF positive status.
- Competition: Hyperscalers (AWS/Azure) slash prices to protect market share.
6. Actionable Advice
- Entry Range: Look for pullbacks to $75 - $80.
- Observation Point: Q1 2026 earnings (April 29) to verify "summer delivery" milestones in France.
- Stop Loss: Tight stop at $75 due to high volatility.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only. High-growth AI stocks carry extreme risk.